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低效井重复压裂产量深度时间序列预测方法综述

Prediction of post-refracture production of low-productivity wells using deep time series models: A critical review

  • 摘要: 当前,我国非常规原油产量不及总产油量的2%,老区在较长时间内仍然是稳产主力。重复压裂是储层增产改造的重要技术组成,压后产量的准确预测是重复压裂目标井正确选择的关键。由于储层内部的不连续界面、孔渗异质性和关键油藏参数缺失等因素的影响,传统基于经验式或数值模拟的压后产量预测方法在老区的适用性受限,深度学习模型是一个优秀的选项。传统深度学习方法(如RNN、LSTM)存在梯度消失、长期依赖建模能力不足等局限,难以应对石油时间序列数据的高维、非平稳及噪声干扰等特性。Transformer架构凭借多头注意力机制与并行计算能力,可有效捕捉产量时间序列中的长短期依赖关系。系统回顾重复压裂技术沿革,以及深度时间序列预测模型研究进展,提出构建基于Transformer架构的低效井重复压裂产量深度时间序列预测模型,并在准噶尔盆地某油田W区块的历史产量数据上进行了案例研究。研究是构建适应老区重复压裂批量化快速精确选井的理论及方法体系的创新尝试,力求为老区持续稳产提供全新视角与解决方案。展望未来研究方向:一是针对计算成本控制,建议优化经典Transformer架构的注意力模块、配合时间序列分解技术,实现低算力成本的重复压裂产量预测;二是针对多区块协同选井,建议引入领域自适应理论,从对抗领域自适应或伪标签领域自适应入手,开发具备迁移学习能力的Transformer骨干架构。

     

    Abstract: At present, unconventional crude oil production in China accounts for less than 2% of total oil output, while mature oilfields remain the primary contributors to stable production over an extended period. Re-fracturing is a crucial component of reservoir stimulation, and accurate post-fracturing production prediction plays a key role in the selection of target wells for re-fracturing. However, due to internal discontinuities in the reservoir, heterogeneity in porosity and permeability, and missing critical reservoir parameters, conventional post-fracturing production prediction methods based on empirical formulas or numerical simulations exhibit limited applicability in mature oilfields. Deep learning models provide a promising alternative. Traditional deep learning approaches, such as Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, suffer from gradient vanishing and limited capability in modeling long-term dependencies, making them inadequate for handling petroleum time-series data characterized by high dimensionality, non-stationarity, and noise interference. The Transformer architecture, leveraging its multi-head attention mechanism and parallel computing capabilities, effectively captures both short- and long-term dependencies in production time series. A comprehensive review of re-fracturing technology advancements and recent progress in deep time-series forecasting models has been conducted. Based on this, a Transformer-based deep time-series prediction model is proposed for forecasting post-refracturing production in low-efficiency wells. A case study is performed using historical production data from Block W in an oilfield located in the Junggar Basin. This study represents an innovative attempt to establish a theoretical and methodological framework for large-scale, efficient, and precise well selection in mature oilfields undergoing re-fracturing, offering novel perspectives and solutions for maintaining stable production. Future research should focus on two key directions. First, to control computational costs, optimizing the attention mechanism in the classical Transformer architecture and integrating time-series decomposition techniques is recommended to enable low-computation refracturing production prediction. Second, for multi-block collaborative well selection, incorporating domain adaptation theories—particularly adversarial domain adaptation and pseudo-label domain adaptation—should be explored to develop a Transformer backbone with transfer learning capabilities.

     

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