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    基于混合算法优化神经网络的富油煤热解产物预测与帕累托寻优

    Hybrid algorithm-optimized neural network for predicting tar-rich coal pyrolysis products with pareto optimization

    • 摘要: 为提高富油煤热解产物分布的预测精度并实现工艺参数优化,构建了富油煤热解专用数据库,提出了一种融合麻雀搜索算法与粒子群优化算法的混合优化策略(SSA-PSO),对BP神经网络权重与阈值进行协同优化,建立了SSA-PSO-BP富油煤热解产物预测模型。结果表明,与标准BP、PSO-BP及SSA-BP模型相比,SSA-PSO-BP模型在三相产物预测中表现出更高的精度与稳定性,测试集平均决定系数(R2)达0.9147,综合评价指标(Score)较PSO-BP与SSA-BP分别降低17.5%与9.9%。基于SHAP与偏依赖分析,对模型预测结果进行了机理解释,挥发分、碳氢元素含量、H/C原子比及热解温度是影响产物分布的主控因素,模型能够有效捕捉变量间的非线性关系与交互效应。基于优化模型,对新疆、陕西及内蒙古典型富油煤开展热解条件寻优。在目标函数寻优方法中,获得最优热解温度分别为602.17 ℃、537.32 ℃和630.21 ℃,对应焦油产率分别为17.43%、16.77%和12.86%;进一步采用非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)进行帕累托前沿寻优,揭示了焦油与煤气产率间的竞争关系,并明确了不同热解温度和煤质特性对该权衡关系的影响机制。研究结果为富油煤热解过程的产物分布预测及定向调控提供了一种数据驱动的建模与优化方法。

       

      Abstract: To improve the prediction accuracy of pyrolysis product distribution from tar-rich coal and optimize the process parameters, this study constructed a specialized database for tar-rich coal pyrolysis. A hybrid strategy integrating the Sparrow Search Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (SSA-PSO) was proposed to optimize the weights and thresholds of a BP neural network, establishing an SSA-PSO-BP prediction model. The resulting SSA-PSO-BP model significantly outperformed standard BP, PSO-BP, and SSA-BP models in predicting three-phase pyrolysis products. On the test set, the model achieved a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9147. Its comprehensive evaluation (Score)decreased by 17.5% and 9.9% compared to PSO-BP and SSA-BP, respectively. SHAP and partial dependence analysis revealed that volatile matter, carbon and hydrogen content, H/C atomic ratio, and pyrolysis temperature are key features influencing product distribution. The model successfully captured nonlinear relationships and interaction effects among variables. Based on the optimized model, the pyrolysis conditions for typical tar-rich coals from Xinjiang, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were optimized. Objective function optimization yielded optimal pyrolysis temperatures of 602.17 ℃, 537.32 ℃, and 630.21 ℃, with corresponding tar yields of 17.43%, 16.77%, and 12.86%, respectively. Pareto front optimization was further conducted using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), which revealed the competitive relationship between tar and gas yields and clarified how different pyrolysis temperatures and coal properties affect this trade-off.This work provides a data-driven method and theoretical basis for accurate prediction and targeted regulation of tar-rich coal pyrolysis.

       

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